China, in contrast, seems basically indifferent to the types of government of the states with which it interacts, increasing its attractiveness as an economic partner. Russia backs far-right and far-left political movements with a view to disrupting the politics of adversarial societies and, if possible, installing friendlier regimes.
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Militarily, China can be contained for a while longer economically, it has already broken free of regional constraints.Russia is vulnerable to a range of nonmilitary deterrents, such as sanctions on the Russian economy and limiting Russian income from exports of fossil fuels multilateral efforts would be more effective than U.S.-only operations, however.Ĭhina presents a regional military challenge and a global economic one.Russia will probably remain militarily superior to all its immediate neighbors other than China.national security than China is but can be countered Russia is a more immediate and more proximate military threat to U.S. Russia is far smaller, has poorer economic prospects, and is less likely to dramatically increase its military power in the long term.Russia's military expenditure is lower than China's, and that gap is likely to grow.As of 2017, China's economy was the second largest in the world, behind only that of the United States.China's per capita GDP approaches Russia's its population is eight times Russia's, and its growth rate three times.Key FindingsĬhina presents a greater geoeconomic challenge to the United States than Russia does It is in the domain of geoeconomics that the balance of global influence between the United States and China has begun shifting in China's favor. But it is geoeconomics, rather than geopolitics, in which the contest for world leadership will play out. Its military predominance in east Asia will grow over time, compelling the United States to accept greater costs and risks just to secure existing commitments. In the military realm, Russia can be contained, but China cannot. These attributes make China a less immediate threat but a much greater long-term challenge. In contrast, China's growing influence is based largely on more-positive measures: trade, investment, and development assistance. Russia assassinates its opponents at home and abroad, interferes in foreign elections, subverts foreign democracies, and works to undermine European and Atlantic institutions. Both countries seek to alter the status quo, but only Russia has attacked neighboring states, annexed conquered territory, and supported insurgent forces seeking to detach yet more territory. In contrast, China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate. Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate. Russia and China represent distinct challenges to U.S.
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